Monte Carlon.
/ˌmɒntɪ ˈkɑːləʊ/, U.S. /ˌmɑn(t)ə ˈkɑrˌloʊ/, /ˌmɑn(t)i ˈkɑrˌloʊ/ I. Compounds.
1. Monte Carlo rally n. (the name of) an annual international car rally, first held in 1911, the final stages of which take place in Monte Carlo.
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1933 Motor 13 Jan. 1156/2 In our report..of the Monte Carlo Rally it was stated that Mr. A. K. Stevenson..was co-driver with the Hon. V. A. Bruce.
1958 M. D. Gibson (title) Ian Munro's Monte Carlo Rally.
1973 Guardian 26 Jan. 13/1 Irate Monte Carlo Rally drivers..complained about speed traps set up by the French police.
1997 BBC Top Gear Mag. Nov. 136 (heading) The urbane ex-fighter pilot tackled the Monte Carlo rally..and faced death at Le Mans.
2.
a. attributive. Designating or involving any of various methods of estimating the solution to numerical problems by the random (or pseudorandom) sampling of numbers with some chosen frequency distribution. Esp. in Monte Carlo method.
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the world > relative properties > number > probability or statistics > [noun] > involving random generation
random number1926
stochastic process1934
Markov chain1938
Markov process1938
Markov property1944
Monte Carlo method1949
Monte Carlo1951
stochasticity1972
1949 Jrnl. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 44 338 The idea of using a statistical approach..is sometimes referred to as the Monte Carlo method.
1950 Nucleonics May 27 (heading) Random sampling (Monte Carlo) techniques in neutron attenuation problems.
1964 Guardian 19 June 6/6 (advt.) Familiarity with Monte Carlo methods and computer programming would be an advantage.
1994 Business Week 31 Oct. 88/1 Thanks to quantum leaps in computer software, Lewent now uses Monte Carlo analysis—a technique for formulating a set of possible conseqences of certain actions.
b. Monte Carlo fallacy n. the fallacy that the probability of any particular outcome to one of a series of repeated but independent events of chance is inversely dependent upon the previous outcomes (so that, e.g., a succession of failures is thought to increase the probability of success on the next occasion).
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the world > relative properties > number > probability or statistics > [noun] > involving random generation > misconception about
Monte Carlo fallacy1957
1957 Sci. Amer. Nov. 136/2 In our studies of the manifestations of subjective probability in gambling we have given particular attention to the Monte Carlo fallacy; the well-nigh unanimous belief that after a run of successes a failure is inevitable, and vice versa.
1986 Science 5 Sept. 1027/1 Eliot Marshall..should be chained to a roulette wheel in Atlantic City until he understands the nature of a probability estimate and the Monte Carlo fallacy.
II. Simple uses.
3. The Monte Carlo rally.
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1950 R. Lowry Monte Carlo Rally ix. 76 There are Rallies ideally suited to such tastes but the Monte Carlo is not one of them.
1973 Guardian 26 Jan. 13/1 On the Monte Carlo, two reports of excessive speeding mean automatic disqualification.
1998 Classic Cars Apr. 75/1 The cycle-winged car, ADU4 was rallied by Donald Healey before being destroyed by a train in the 1935 Monte Carlo.
4. Also with lower-case initials. Any of the Monte Carlo methods used as a tool for estimating the solution to numerical problems.
ΘΚΠ
the world > relative properties > number > probability or statistics > [noun] > involving random generation
random number1926
stochastic process1934
Markov chain1938
Markov process1938
Markov property1944
Monte Carlo method1949
Monte Carlo1951
stochasticity1972
1951 Nat. Bureau Standards Appl. Math. Ser. (U.S.) 12 iii. 6/1 In some instances..a judicious combination of Monte Carlo applied to the physical model with analysis of the equations is indicated.
1969 J. Argenti Managem. Techniques 172 Monte Carlo is a form of simulation..and both often require the use of a computer. It is possible, however, to use Monte Carlo with pencil and paper.
1988 Jrnl. Monetary Econ. 22 82 We have not done a formal Monte Carlo but initial computer experiments suggests [sic] that the bias is not large.
2000 Nature 16 Nov. 291/1 Statistical tools such as monte-carlo and bootstrapping can give useful information in such situations.
This entry has been updated (OED Third Edition, December 2002; most recently modified version published online March 2022).
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