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单词 the maturity of chances
释义

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the maturity of (the) chances
6. Gambling. the maturity of (the) chances [after French la maturité des chances (1861 in the passage translated in quot. 1870)] : the modification of probabilities relating to future events which is erroneously supposed to come about as a result of past independent events of chance (the premise being more commonly known as the Monte Carlo fallacy: see Monte Carlo n. 2b).
ΚΠ
1870 A. Steinmetz tr. J. E. Robert-Houdin in Gaming Table II. viii. 255 This is the most elementary of the theories on probabilities; it is termed the maturity of the chances.
1952 H. C. Levinson Sci. Chance vi. 59 If a player [at roulette] believes in ‘the maturity of the chances’, he is logically justified in expecting to win on a system that calls for increased bets after successive losses.
1986 Stud. Hist. Philos. Sci. 17 327 This phenomenon is aptly named the maturity of chances: when a particular possible outcome of some chance device has not been realized for a while, it will become more and more mature, until it falls like a ripe apple from its tree, into reality.
extracted from maturityn.
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