actuarial risk assessment

actuarial risk assessment

A statistical method of estimating the risk of a particular event’s occurrence—e.g., the risk of a sexual offender committing a new sexual offence.
Actuarial methods are touted as more accurate than clinical judgement alone. One group that evaluated ARA instruments concluded they cannot be used to estimate an individual's risk for future violence with any reasonable degree of certainty and should be used with great caution or not at all.

Actuarial Risk Assessment

A term of art referring to an objective method of estimating a sexual offender's risk for committing a new sexual offence. In this regard, actuarial methods are regarded as more accurate than those based on clinical judgement alone.