1. Absolute as a miser’s greed —Anon
2. An absolute, like the firmness of the earth —Tom Wolfe
3. Almost as predictable as the arrival of solstice and equinox —Russell Baker, New York Times/Observer, September 17, 1986

   Baker’s comparison referred to Chief-Justice-to-be William Rehnquist’s judicial opinions.

4. As certain as a gun —Samuel Butler
5. As certain as beach traffic in July —Anon
6. As certain as bodies moved with greater impulse, progress more rapidly than those moved with less —Voltaire
7. As certain as death and taxes —Daniel Defoe

   Often attributed to Benjamin Franklin, the simile continues to be popular, with many humorous twists such as “Certain as death and hay-fever,” used in Philip Barry’s 1923 play, You and I.

8. As certain as dye penetrates cotton —Daniela Gioseffi

   The simile, from a poem, continues with “The orange is a part of the living animal.”

9. As certain as end-of-the season inventories —Anon
10. As certain as June graduates scanning the want ads —Anon
11. As certain as leaves falling in September —Anon
12. As certain as lines at return counters after Christmas —Anon
13. As certain as rise of taxi meter —Anon
14. As certain as that a crooked tree will have a crooked shadow —Anon
15. As certain as that bread crumbs will attract a flock of pigeons —Anon
16. As certain as that leaves will fall in autumn —Anon
17. As certain as that night succeeds the day —George Washington
18. As certain as that your shadow will follow you —Anon
19. As certain as the morning —Thomas Wolfe
20. As certain as the sunrise —Anon
21. As certain as thunderclap following lightning —Anon
22. As certain as wrinkles —Anon
23. As certainly as day follows day —Anon
24. As certainly as Segovia had been born to finger a fretboard or Willie Mays to swing a bat —T. Coraghessan Boyle
25. As inevitable as a dog at a hydrant —Anon
26. As inevitable as the turning of the earth on which you stand —Harvey Swados
27. As sure as a club —Mary Hedin
28. As sure as a goose goes barefoot —American colloquialism, attributed to Northeast
29. As sure as a tested hypothesis —Lorrie Moore
30. As sure as a wheel is round —American colloquialism
31. As sure as behave and misbehave —John Ciardi
32. As sure as day —William Shakespeare
33. As sure as death —William Shakespeare
34. As sure as death —Ben Jonson

    Jonson’s use of this simile in Every Man in His Humor if not the first, is certainly one of the earliest encountered.

35. As sure as meat will fry —American colloquialism, attributed to Southeast
36. As sure as rain —Ben Ames Williams

    A more specific variation of this is “Sure as rain in April.”

37. As sure as shooting —Anon

    This common expression probably stems from the no longer used “Sure as a gun,” variously attributed to the poet John Dryden and the playwright William Congreve.

38. Sure as shooting —American colloquialism
39. As sure as snakes crawl —American colloquialism, attributed to Midwest
40. As surely as that two ends of a seesaw cannot both be elevated at the same time —Alexander Woolcott
41. As surely as the eye tends to be long-sighted in the sailor and shortsighted in the student —Herbert Spencer
42. As surely as the harvest comes after the seedtime —John Brown
43. As surely as the tree becomes bulky when it stands alone and slender if one of a group —Herbert Spencer
44. As surely as water will wet us, as surely as fire will burn —Rudyard Kipling
45. As unpreventable as blinking your eyes when a light flashes suddenly —Anon
46. Certain things will follow inevitably, just like a little trail of horseshit behind a fat old draught horse —George Garrett
47. Definite as a counter-signed contract —Anon
48. Inevitable as a comet’s return —Marge Piercy
49. Inevitable as noon —Thomas Wolfe
50. Inevitable as the snick of a mouse-trap —Carl Sandburg
51. Inevitable … like a stone rolling down a mountain —Mary Gordon
52. Predictable as a physical law —Charles Johnson
53. (The man was as) predictable as rainwater seeking a low spot —William Beechcroft
54. Predictable as the prints left by a three-legged dog —Sharon Sheehe Stark
55. Predictable as the arrival of Monday morning —Harry Prince
56. Predictable as the menu at charity dinner —Anon
57. Predictable, like a diplomatic reception —A. Alvarez
58. Secure as an obituary in the Times —Marge Piercy
59. So predictable … just like tuning in the same radio station every night —Lee Smith

    A character in Smith’s novel, The Last Day the Dogbushes Bloomed, uses this simile to describe a dull suitor.

60. A sweet and sure annuity; it’s like taking a bath at Fort Knox —Moss Hart

    This line from Light Up the Sky likens a national tour for an ice show to sure-fire success.

bet one’s boots To be absolutely sure or certain of something. The reference is to a gambler (perhaps a cowboy, whose boots are among his most important possessions) so sure of winning that he will bet everything he owns, including his boots. The phrase appeared in 1856 in Spirit of Times. Similar expressions are bet one’s life and bet one’s bottom dollar.

dead to rights Indisputably, unquestionably; positively, assuredly; usually in the phrases have someone dead to rights or caught dead to rights, in which it is equivalent to ‘in the act, red-handed’ Attempts to explain the origin of this American colloquial expression are frustrating and futile. Dead appears to be used in its meaning of ‘absolutely, utterly’; but the equivalent British expression bang to rights suggests something closer to ‘directly, precisely.’ The context of wrongdoing in which the phrase always appears in early citations indicates that to rights may relate to the rights of the guilty party, but the theory does not withstand careful analysis. The OED suggests a connection between the to rights of the phrase and the obsolete to rights ‘in a proper manner,’ but no citations contain analogous syntactic constructions. Despite its refusal to yield an elucidating explanation, dead to rights has been a commonly used expression since the mid-1800s.

dollars to doughnuts A sure thing, a certainty; usually in the phrase bet you dollars to doughnuts, in use since 1890. Although the precise origin of this expression is unknown, it obviously plays on the value of a dollar contrasted with the relative small worth of a doughnut, which once cost 5¢. Anyone willing to wager dollars to doughnuts is confident of winning his bet. One use of the expression apparently referred to the declining value of the dollar:

eat one’s hat To admit willingness to “eat one’s hat” is to express certainty and confidence, and to be ready to abase one-self should things not turn out as one had anticipated. Should such cocksureness prove ill-founded, “eating one’s hat” would be analogous to “eating crow” or “eating one’s words.” The first use of this expression is attributed to Charles Dickens in The Pickwick Papers (1837).

Of British origin, eat one’s hat is currently popular in the United States as well.

eggs is eggs Surely, definitely, absolutely, without a doubt. Usually used as an interjection or in the phrase sure as eggs is eggs, this British colloquialism is probably a humorous twist or an ignorant mispronunciation of “X” in the familiar algebraic equation, “X is X.”

far and away Absolutely, incomparably, easily, undoubtedly; by far. Used to increase the intensity of a superlative adjective, this expression implies that there are no competitors or contenders within reach of this description.

hands down See EFFORTLESSNESS.

in spades Definitely, emphatically, to the utmost degree; without restraint or qualification; no ifs, ands, or buts. This expression connoting extremeness derives from the fact that spades are the highest suit in some card games. In spades is used as an intensifier, as in the following citation from Webster’s Third:

in the bag Assured, certain. The most plausible and frequent explanation holds that the reference is to game which has been killed and bagged, i.e., put in the gamebag. One source claims a cockfighting origin for the term; since a live gamecock is literally brought to the pits in a bag, for the owner confident of victory, “It’s in the bag.”

lead-pipe cinch An absolute certainty; a certain success; something that is easily accomplished; a piece of cake. In this expression, cinch refers to a saddle girth, the beltlike strap used to secure the saddle on a horse. If the cinch were tight enough, the rider did not have to worry about the saddle’s slipping; in fact, it was a certainty that the saddle would stay in place. Although the rationale for the inclusion of “leadpipe” in this expression is unclear, it is possible that the relative ease with which lead for (waste) plumbing could be worked (compared with cast iron) gave rise to lead-pipe as an intensifier.

on ice See ABEYANCE.

shoo-in A candidate, athlete, team, or other competitor considered to be a sure winner; the favorite. This expression employs the verb phrase to shoo-in ‘to cause to go into’ as a noun.

sure as shooting Certainly without a doubt, most assuredly. This colloquialism of American origin appeared in print by the mid-1800s. It was probably a cowboy expression referring to one’s need for sure ‘accurate’ shooting to avoid being shot dead in turn.