long-wave theory

long-wave theory

the identification of long-term cycles of economic boom and slump in which the upturn in the cycle is caused by major technical innovations. The idea was first developed in the 1920s by the Soviet economist Kondratieff, who identified cycles of boom and recession totalling about fifty years which coincided with innovations such as cotton spinning in the 18th century and assembly-line mass production post-World War II. The theory has been taken up in the debate about innovations using microelectronics, seen as leading to movement out of the slump associated with the fourth KONDRATIEFF CYCLE in the 1980s (Freeman, 1982). See also SCHUMPETER.