| 单词 | gambler's fallacy |
| 释义 | > as lemmasgambler's fallacy gambler's fallacy n. (also gamblers' fallacy) the fallacy that a particular outcome of one of a series of repeated, statistically independent trials is less likely if that same outcome has already occurred frequently, or more likely if it has occurred infrequently. ΚΠ 1938 Philos. Sci. 5 58 The subject matter no longer is the specious present, or empty time, concepts that may properly enlist the psychologist's interest but are no more significant to the theory of time than..the gambler's fallacy is to the theory of probability. 1972 Jrnl. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 67 93/1 Analyses of data..have revealed a tendency for subjects to predict the alternative event with increasing probability during a run of a given event, apparently a manifestation of something akin to the ‘gambler's fallacy’. 2003 Financial Times 25 Jan. (Money Guide section) 8/1 Were these same observers playing roulette, they would be suffering from the well-known ‘gamblers' fallacy’ that assumes three reds must be followed by a black. < as lemmas |
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