Layoffs and slow sales in the first half of 1998 prompted some to predict a recession, but the technology boom roared on for two more years.

Investors have become even more bearish about the 17-member eurozone, with the number predicting a recession there doubling.

I ask, then, if nicer television predicts a recession.

In 2006, for instance, could one have looked at indicators of the time and, by plugging in other factors such as the way banks were managing risk, predicted a recession?

It predicts the recession will run for almost all of 2009, with growth hit by the falls in confidence and business activity in the wake of the financial turmoil.