And while it issued a forecast in autumn proclaiming that this winter would be mild, rival forecasters correctly predicted colder than normal weather.

The ministry issued a forecast last month in which it had predicted a fall in production to a range of between 42.8 million and 46.4 million hectolitres.

Every year, economists issue their forecasts, duly get them wrong (the error rates are actually remarkably consistent) and every year they get roundly castigated for their mistakes.

Conditions continued to deteriorate through the early evening, and at 7:30 the local weather bureau issued a forecast which included the developing thunderstorm activity.

In the morning, they issued a forecast for heavy thunderstorms effective for 56 pm that evening.